Demographic Projections

We have been providing enrollment projections to public school districts for the past 25 years. Our client base consists of districts ranging from large cities to small rural communities. We adhere to the projection requirements which are individually matched to a district’s needs and to State requirements where appropriate. Our track record for accuracy is second to none and our clients will certainly attest to that. Our clients have used our studies for many purposes, including budget preparation, facility utilization, closing and/or opening schools and redistricting.

Our studies begin with a six-year enrollment history for the District both on a district wide and individual school basis. From that history we can provide five year projections and if requested we can take those projections to ten or more years (although as projections go further out they become increasingly less reliable. We also use several techniques to project kindergarten. We start with birth to kindergarten historical data. Along with that we also utilize a moving average if the birth rate does not accurately reflect previous trends (in high mobility districts birth rate is usually not reliable). There are also adjustments that need to be made if a district does not offer a full day kindergarten program.

Along with using the enrollment history and birth data we also analyze the impact of residential housing on a school district. We take into account residential housing which is under construction as well as planned and approved housing developments in a community. Consideration is given to the type of housing (single family, multi-family, condominium, townhouse, affordable, etc.).

Our demographic studies can also be expanded to include other factors such as diversity, comparison of selected demographic factors from comparable or surrounding school districts, and migration factors which may be unique to a particular district.

The deliverables include, but may not be limited to, a written report which includes narratives, charts, tables and an analysis of our findings. We can provide, upon request, samples of our reports. Below is a sample of a typical district-wide projection table.